Showing posts with label stimulus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stimulus. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Don't Doubt Bernanke's Ability to Create Inflation

/PRNewswire/ The National Inflation Association today released the following inflation update to its http://inflation.us/ members:

With the Dow Jones now down 11% nominally from its high last month, NIA has been getting hundreds of emails and phone calls asking if there is any way we could be wrong about the threat of hyperinflation in the U.S. and if indeed deflation is the real problem we need to be worried about. The names Nouriel Roubini, Robert Prechter, and Harry Dent get mentioned to us a lot, with many NIA members asking why these so-called "experts" believe deflation is in our future.

Roubini, Prechter and Dent have been wrong about the overwhelming majority of their economic forecasts over the past decade. When it comes to their latest predictions about deflation, they will actually be right to some extent. We will see deflation in some assets like stocks and Real Estate, but only when priced in terms of real money - gold and silver. In terms of dollars, prices for pretty much all goods and services are guaranteed to rise dramatically over the next few years. Creating inflation is the only thing in the world Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke knows how to do and is good at.

During the past week, the mainstream media has shifted from saying we are experiencing an "economy recovery" to now saying we are at risk of a "double dip recession." Nothing fundamentally has changed in our economy. The fact is, the U.S. economy has been in a recession since mid-2000. All government reported positive GDP growth since mid-2000 has been due to nothing but inflation. Our economy should have experienced a depression in 2001 and an even greater one in 2008, but the depression has been temporarily avoided at the expense of an inevitable Hyperinflationary Great Depression down the road.

NIA believes it is impossible for the U.S. to experience price deflation when the Federal Reserve has held interest rates at 0% for the past 17 months. Sure, there will probably be a second wave of mortgage defaults that could cause another round of forced liquidations on Wall Street, but during any future period of forced liquidations, we doubt the U.S. dollar will still be looked at as the "safe haven" it was in 2008/2009. Gold and silver will soon be looked at as the only real safe havens because they are the only assets that provide protection from both a deteriorating economy and massive inflation. Precious metals will decouple from the Dow Jones and we will begin to see gold and silver rise at the same time as the stock market falls.

Bernanke was questioned yesterday following a speech at the Bank of Japan about whether a 4% inflation target would be better than the Fed's current inflation target of 2%. Bernanke responded that "it would be a very risky transition" if the Fed changed their inflation target, claiming that U.S. inflation expectations are currently "very stable" (NIA estimates the real rate of U.S. price inflation is already north of 5%).

Unfortunately, no policymaker in the world is smart enough to accurately control the rate of price inflation through the manipulation of interest rates, and certainly not Bernanke. It's mind-boggling to us how the mainstream media could believe anything Bernanke says about inflation after how wrong he has been about everything else. Maybe the press has already forgotten that it was Bernanke who in July of 2005 said, "it's a pretty unlikely possibility" that home prices will decline across the country, "house prices will slow, maybe stabilize but I don't think it's going to drive the economy too far from its full employment path." We are 100% sure that Bernanke will be proven wrong again when it comes to inflation.

The U.S. Dollar Index has rallied from 75 to 87 since December and is approaching its high from March of 2009 of 89. This has given Bernanke the cover to keep interest rates at a record low 0%, but NIA believes Bernanke is misreading these economic signals. When the U.S. Dollar Index reached its high last year of 89, gold was only $900 per ounce. Today, gold is approximately $1,200 per ounce. The fact that gold has held up so strong despite a rapidly rising U.S. Dollar Index, proves that our financial system is getting ready to overdose on excess liquidity. The U.S. Dollar Index has rallied only because it is heavily weighted against the Euro. The Euro is now overdue for a huge bounce, which we believe will send the U.S. dollar crashing while sending gold to new record highs.

It's not good for us to pay too much attention to short-term volatility in the financial markets. Short-term "noise" often causes investors to second guess what they know is true. In our new documentary 'Meltup' (which has now surpassed 441,000 views in 10 days) we said, "If stocks were to see a nominal decline one last time, we will likely see Bernanke shoot up his largest ever dose of quantitative easing, which could turn the current Meltup into hyperinflation."

We are seeing signs of this coming true already. Washington is now calling for another stimulus. Larry Summers, senior economic adviser to President Obama, has asked Congress to begin drafting a new stimulus bill in an attempt to prevent a "double dip recession." The proposed size of this new stimulus is so far only $200 billion, much smaller than the last $787 billion stimulus bill. However, we are sure Congress will increase the size of it, especially if stocks continue their nominal decline. The new stimulus bill will likely coincide with trillions of dollars in additional quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.

Friday, March 12, 2010

Will Patient Privacy Be Sold for Stimulus Money?

/PRNewswire/ -- The key to enforcing healthcare reform was already passed in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), also known as the Stimulus Bill. This contains $17 billion to encourage physicians and hospitals to adopt electronic health records.

Doctors might not take the bribe. An informal online survey by the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) so far shows that 90 percent of more than 1,100 respondents answer "No" to the question "Should doctors take the 'Stimulus' money to computerize their offices?" See www.aapsonline.org.

To get the subsidy of up to $65,000 over 5 years, doctors have to use a government-approved system. Such a system must be "interoperable" -- which means able to share patients' private information with more than 600,000 different entities.

No patient consent is needed.

Doctors are warned: "If you take the stimulus money to computerize your office, the government will own your patients' medical records -- and possibly your practice," states Jane M. Orient, M.D., executive director of AAPS.

The system will have to be capable of generating lists of patients by specific conditions, to use for "quality improvement," reduction of disparities, research, and outreach. It will have to contain decision rules as for ordering diagnostic tests, and a way to track compliance with the rules. Doctors' pay will be tied to achieving the government's desired outcomes.

The government's purposes include cutting spending and meeting population health goals. The doctor's calling, in contrast, has traditionally been to serve each individual patient.

Changing from a sickness to a wellness orientation means that healthy young workers (taxpayers and voters) have a priority higher than older, sicker folks.

Under the Senate healthcare reform bill, a computer will determine, at the point of service, whether or not an individual is eligible to receive a specific service at a specific facility. The interoperable health record would contain information such as ethnicity, race, preferred language, smoking status, weight, body mass index, age, and compliance with past treatment, related to patient worthiness and societal goals.

"Interoperability" is what the $17 billion buys for the government. It's essential for central government monitoring and control of doctors -- and their patients.

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Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Ethnic Americans Support Federal Stimulus Spending; Most Americans Question Current Impact of Package

/PRNewswire/ -- Ethnic Americans have a far better image of the $787 billion stimulus package than their white counterparts, with 84 percent of African Americans saying it was "a good thing" for the country, while only 45 percent of white adults agree with that statement, according to a recent poll commissioned by New America Media (NAM).

In total, the poll conducted by Bendixen & Associates found that more than two-thirds of Hispanics, African Americans, Asian Americans and Native Americans said the legislation was a "good thing" for their families and communities. And most Americans have a positive outlook about the future. More than three-fifths of adults from all ethnic and racial groups were optimistic that their personal financial situation will improve over the next year.

Nevertheless, most ethnic adults agreed with whites that, as of now, they are not aware of actual benefits from the legislation. These poll results strongly indicate the Obama administration has failed to inform the American public on ways that the stimulus spending may be having a positive impact on families and the national economy.

Moreover, the poll painted a picture of many ethnic Americans struggling to survive in the difficult economic times. More than 60 percent of Hispanics worry about their ability to pay housing expenses; 50 percent of Native Americans worry whether they can afford basic food, medicine and clothing for their families; and more than 30 percent of African Americans and Asian Americans worry about losing their current full-time job.

"Our poll shows the Obama administration has not done a good job of informing Americans about the economic opportunities that currently exist because of the stimulus package," said Sandy Close, executive director of NAM, which represents the interest of more than 2,500 ethnic media outlets.

"Across the country," she said, "the Recovery Act has made billions of dollars available for extended unemployment benefits and health insurance for laid off workers. It has appropriated money for small businesses and arts organizations. It has prevented thousands of teachers from being laid off and kept firehouses from closing. Our poll shows that across the racial and ethnic spectrum most Americans remain unaware of the actual impact on their communities."

In some instances, perceptions towards the stimulus package appear to be shaped by factors well outside of its influence. Two-thirds of Americans say their monthly take-home pay has "stayed the same" or actually "decreased" in the last six months, even though the administration said the stimulus package would cut taxes for 95 percent of Americans.

Overall, approximately half of Hispanics, Asian Americans, whites and Native Americans say that - as of now - the stimulus package has had "no effect" or that it has "made the economy worse." Only African Americans believe the stimulus package "has made the economy better." There are also regional differences regarding the impact on the economy: 48 percent of those polled in the Northeast said the economic stimulus had made the economy better but only 29 percent felt that way in the Midwest.

The poll is based on 1,000 interviews with whites, Hispanics, African Americans, Native Americans and Asian Americans during the last week of August and the first two weeks of September, and has a margin of error of three percent. It is the first poll to measure public attitudes about the stimulus package along racial and ethnic lines, with questions administered in English, Spanish, Korean, Mandarin, Cantonese or Vietnamese depending on the language of preference of the respondent.

The survey also found that:

-- Americans doubt the effectiveness of the direct relief to state
governments to prevent layoffs of teachers, firefighters and police
officers. Large majorities of whites, Hispanics, Asian Americans and
Native Americans say the stimulus package has not had a significant
impact on avoiding dismissals of public employees. Only African
Americans give the legislation credit for having been effective on
this front.
-- Two-fifths of whites and Asian Americans and one-third of Hispanics
said they were aware of newly-created projects, such as construction
at military bases, ports, bridges and tunnels, while only one-fourth
of all Americans are aware of "green jobs" that have been created in
their community during the last six months.
-- Only about one-third of African Americans, Hispanics, Asian Americans
and Native Americans believe contractors and businesses in their
communities know how to access stimulus dollars.
-- More than four-fifths of all Americans do not know of any small
business that has received a government loan over the last six months.
-- Approximately two-thirds of all respondents say that they are also not
aware of any arts programs, environmental projects, health research
centers or affordable housing programs in their community that have
received stimulus dollars.
-- One-quarter of Hispanics, Asian Americans and Native Americans and
two-fifths of whites and African Americans believe there is still time
for local businesses and community groups to apply for economic
stimulus dollars. The rest either think that most of the money has
already been spent or have no opinion on the matter.

"The good news is that there's still time for all Americans to get help from the Recovery Act," said Ms. Close, noting that less than half of the stimulus funds have been spent so far. "The problem is that across racial and ethnic lines most Americans don't know this. They feel like the stimulus train has left the station and they're still waiting on the platform."

Sergio Bendixen, president of Bendixen & Associates, noted that the poll found that the nation's economy remained under a "black cloud" as the anniversary of the 2008 stock market crash approached. "A majority of whites, Hispanics and Native Americans think that the American economy is off on the wrong track," said Mr. Bendixen. "And only four percent of all Americans say there are a lot of jobs available in their community."

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Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Issa to Emanuel: Back Off!

Following reports that White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel has been orchestrating an effort to intimidate members of Congress and Governors who raise legitimate concerns regarding the effectiveness of the stimulus, House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Ranking Member Darrell Issa (R-CA) sent a letter to Emanuel saying “While this type of scare tactic may work In Chicago, it will not work to intimidate me or other Members of the United States Congress.”

“I and others have dared to bring these facts to the attention of President Obama, the Congress and the American people,” Issa wrote. “You’ve unfortunately reacted by once again resorting to the playbook of the Chicago political machine.”

Last month, Politico reported that Emanuel had “launched a coordinated effort to jam” Senator Kyl and other Administration critics… “[A]fter seeing Kyl and House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) again paint the legislation as a failure on Sunday talk shows, White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel directed that the letters from the Cabinet secretaries be sent to [Governor] Brewer, according to two administration officials.”

Issa noted, “The fact that the letters were coordinated by you to maximize the level of intimidation is supported by the timing, structure, and content of each letter. Not only were the four letters all sent the day following Senator Kyl’s remarks, but they were also remarkably similar in tone and sentence structure.”

Letter from Ray LaHood, Secretary of Transportation:
On Sunday, Arizona Senator Jon Kyl publicly questioned whether the stimulus is working and stated that he wants to cancel projects that aren’t presently underway. I believe the stimulus has been very effective in creating job opportunities throughout the country. However, if you prefer to forfeit the money we are making available to your state, as Senator Kyl suggests, please let me know [emphasis added].

Letter from Ken Salazar, Secretary of the Interior:
Some key Republican leaders in Congress have publicly questioned whether the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is working and suggested cancelling all projects that are not currently in progress. I believe they are wrong. The stimulus funds provided through the Recovery Act are a very effective way to create job opportunities throughout the Country. However, if you prefer to forfeit the money we are making available to Arizona, please let me know [emphasis added].

“At what point do you believe your practice of Chicago-style politics violates a public official’s right to speak out in favor of alternative policies,” Issa asks. “The American people have a right to know what role you played in developing the threatening letters to Governor Brewer and whether you intend to continue to engage in these tactics in the future.”

In order to assist the Committee with its investigation of this issue, please provide the following information by close of business on Tuesday, August 11, 2009:

Your response to Politico’s report that “White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel directed that the letters from the Cabinet secretaries be sent to [Governor] Brewer, according to two administration officials.”
A full and complete explanation of the development of the four July 13 letters from the cabinet secretaries to Governor Brewer, including but not limited to the role you or any other White House official played in writing the letters or encouraging the writing of the letters.
All records and communications between you and Secretary LaHood, Secretary Salazar, Secretary Donovan, and Secretary Vilsack referring or relating to the decision to send the July 13 letters to Governor Brewer.
A full and complete explanation of the role of the Democratic National Committee and the White House Office of Political Affairs in authoring, encouraging, facilitating, or directing the four July 13 letters from the cabinet secretaries to Governor Brewer.

You can view a copy of the full letter to Emanuel by clicking here.

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Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Democrats in Disarray on Trillion-Dollar "Stimulus" That Isn't Working

Millions of American jobs have been lost in 2009, even though the Administration promised unemployment would not rise past eight percent if the Democrats’ trillion-dollar “stimulus” spending bill became law. But unemployment is now a staggering 9.5 percent, and middle-class families and small businesses are asking: Where are the jobs?

Democrats are all over the map about why their vaunted “stimulus” is not creating the jobs the Administration promised. Vice President Joe Biden said they “misread the economy,” but President Obama said that wasn’t true. President Obama said “there’s nothing he would have done differently” on the “stimulus,” but the Vice President has already admitted that “Some people are being scammed already” by the legislation.

And what about the prospect of a second “stimulus”? Democrats are deeply divided on that question too, as Bloomberg News reports:

“Democrats who control the levers of power in Washington are divided over whether to push for more deficit spending to end the recession and stem job losses, complicating the possibility of a second stimulus bill.”

A story in this morning’s Politico further highlights the deepening Democratic divide on their trillion-dollar “stimulus”:

“President Barack Obama says there’s ‘nothing’ he ‘would have done differently’ about his economic stimulus plan, but one of his top outside economic advisers says the plan was ‘a bit too small.’”

“Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri says the idea of a second stimulus is a ‘non-starter,’ but Democratic Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island says it ‘should be on the table.’”

“Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) says there’s ‘no showing that a second stimulus is needed,’ but House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) says Congress needs to be ‘open to whether we need additional action.’”

“Democrats are all over the map on the stimulus and the possibility of a sequel, and it’s not hard to see why: When it comes to a second stimulus, they may be damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”

“‘Right now, every headline across the board is the stimulus isn’t enough, states are in bankruptcy, states aren’t paying their bills,’ says Wendy Schiller, a Brown University political scientist. ‘This is really deadly for the Democratic Party, because what it suggests is the Democratic Party cannot run the country.’”

The fact is government spending doesn’t create economic growth; small businesses create economic growth. And if the Democrats in charge of Washington want to take another shot at “stimulating” the economy, they should start by scrapping the job-killing health care and energy bills that are being rammed through Congress this summer, and work with House Republicans on better solutions that encourage investment, savings, and job creation. Instead, it appears that Democrats will continue to stubbornly push legislation to raise energy costs on every American, pave the way for a government takeover of health care, ship millions of jobs overseas, and drive our children and grandchildren into even deeper debt. All the while, the American people continue to ask, “Where are the jobs?” They deserve answers – and better solutions.

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