/PRNewswire/ The National Inflation Association today released the following inflation update to its http://inflation.us/ members:
With the Dow Jones now down 11% nominally from its high last month, NIA has been getting hundreds of emails and phone calls asking if there is any way we could be wrong about the threat of hyperinflation in the U.S. and if indeed deflation is the real problem we need to be worried about. The names Nouriel Roubini, Robert Prechter, and Harry Dent get mentioned to us a lot, with many NIA members asking why these so-called "experts" believe deflation is in our future.
Roubini, Prechter and Dent have been wrong about the overwhelming majority of their economic forecasts over the past decade. When it comes to their latest predictions about deflation, they will actually be right to some extent. We will see deflation in some assets like stocks and Real Estate, but only when priced in terms of real money - gold and silver. In terms of dollars, prices for pretty much all goods and services are guaranteed to rise dramatically over the next few years. Creating inflation is the only thing in the world Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke knows how to do and is good at.
During the past week, the mainstream media has shifted from saying we are experiencing an "economy recovery" to now saying we are at risk of a "double dip recession." Nothing fundamentally has changed in our economy. The fact is, the U.S. economy has been in a recession since mid-2000. All government reported positive GDP growth since mid-2000 has been due to nothing but inflation. Our economy should have experienced a depression in 2001 and an even greater one in 2008, but the depression has been temporarily avoided at the expense of an inevitable Hyperinflationary Great Depression down the road.
NIA believes it is impossible for the U.S. to experience price deflation when the Federal Reserve has held interest rates at 0% for the past 17 months. Sure, there will probably be a second wave of mortgage defaults that could cause another round of forced liquidations on Wall Street, but during any future period of forced liquidations, we doubt the U.S. dollar will still be looked at as the "safe haven" it was in 2008/2009. Gold and silver will soon be looked at as the only real safe havens because they are the only assets that provide protection from both a deteriorating economy and massive inflation. Precious metals will decouple from the Dow Jones and we will begin to see gold and silver rise at the same time as the stock market falls.
Bernanke was questioned yesterday following a speech at the Bank of Japan about whether a 4% inflation target would be better than the Fed's current inflation target of 2%. Bernanke responded that "it would be a very risky transition" if the Fed changed their inflation target, claiming that U.S. inflation expectations are currently "very stable" (NIA estimates the real rate of U.S. price inflation is already north of 5%).
Unfortunately, no policymaker in the world is smart enough to accurately control the rate of price inflation through the manipulation of interest rates, and certainly not Bernanke. It's mind-boggling to us how the mainstream media could believe anything Bernanke says about inflation after how wrong he has been about everything else. Maybe the press has already forgotten that it was Bernanke who in July of 2005 said, "it's a pretty unlikely possibility" that home prices will decline across the country, "house prices will slow, maybe stabilize but I don't think it's going to drive the economy too far from its full employment path." We are 100% sure that Bernanke will be proven wrong again when it comes to inflation.
The U.S. Dollar Index has rallied from 75 to 87 since December and is approaching its high from March of 2009 of 89. This has given Bernanke the cover to keep interest rates at a record low 0%, but NIA believes Bernanke is misreading these economic signals. When the U.S. Dollar Index reached its high last year of 89, gold was only $900 per ounce. Today, gold is approximately $1,200 per ounce. The fact that gold has held up so strong despite a rapidly rising U.S. Dollar Index, proves that our financial system is getting ready to overdose on excess liquidity. The U.S. Dollar Index has rallied only because it is heavily weighted against the Euro. The Euro is now overdue for a huge bounce, which we believe will send the U.S. dollar crashing while sending gold to new record highs.
It's not good for us to pay too much attention to short-term volatility in the financial markets. Short-term "noise" often causes investors to second guess what they know is true. In our new documentary 'Meltup' (which has now surpassed 441,000 views in 10 days) we said, "If stocks were to see a nominal decline one last time, we will likely see Bernanke shoot up his largest ever dose of quantitative easing, which could turn the current Meltup into hyperinflation."
We are seeing signs of this coming true already. Washington is now calling for another stimulus. Larry Summers, senior economic adviser to President Obama, has asked Congress to begin drafting a new stimulus bill in an attempt to prevent a "double dip recession." The proposed size of this new stimulus is so far only $200 billion, much smaller than the last $787 billion stimulus bill. However, we are sure Congress will increase the size of it, especially if stocks continue their nominal decline. The new stimulus bill will likely coincide with trillions of dollars in additional quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.
Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
USAction Supports Afghan Exit But Opposes Troop Escalation: Too Great a Risk, Too High a Cost
/PRNewswire/ -- USAction today praised President Obama's goal of a concrete end to the war in Afghanistan, coupled with political and military benchmarks for success, but expressed profound concern over plans to commit at least 30,000 new troops to the war effort.
"We support the fact that President Obama has a set exit strategy because the previous administration did not," said USAction Program Director Alan Charney. "We are concerned that adding 30,000 troops to the Afghan war zone will make the goal of exiting Afghanistan within three years difficult to achieve. We firmly and resolutely oppose expansion of the war in Afghanistan."
Charney questioned the cost of expanding the war in Afghanistan - a cost that is expressed through the lives of Americans and Afghanis lost and the sacrifice and suffering borne by the families of those killed and maimed. "To paraphrase John Kerry: How do you ask a family to be the last to lose a loved one in Afghanistan?" Charney said. "The risk of escalation is too great. The cost is too high."
And he added that Congress and President Obama must weigh America's priorities in a time of deep recession and an unemployment rate of more than ten percent. "Investing in America's future means creating jobs, strengthening our safety net to address poverty, hunger and home foreclosure and paying for quality, affordable health care. We just cannot afford to expand the war in Afghanistan."
Matt Holland, director of USAction's online department, TrueMajority, said more than 30,000 USAction/TrueMajority members have signed a petition opposing the increase in fighting. "TrueMajority members were among the first to oppose the war in Iraq," he said. "We were among the first to oppose George W. Bush's escalation in December 2007. And we've been among the first to oppose this mistake in Afghanistan. Our members were right the first time and right the second time. Must there be a third time?"
USAction helped lead the Americans Against Escalation in Iraq coalition and many of its 28 state affiliates and partners organized on-the-ground events against the troop buildup. USAction and its online department TrueMajority also have been helping lead the effort to curtail funding for the F-22 fighter jet as well as other unnecessary and obsolete Pentagon programs.
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"We support the fact that President Obama has a set exit strategy because the previous administration did not," said USAction Program Director Alan Charney. "We are concerned that adding 30,000 troops to the Afghan war zone will make the goal of exiting Afghanistan within three years difficult to achieve. We firmly and resolutely oppose expansion of the war in Afghanistan."
Charney questioned the cost of expanding the war in Afghanistan - a cost that is expressed through the lives of Americans and Afghanis lost and the sacrifice and suffering borne by the families of those killed and maimed. "To paraphrase John Kerry: How do you ask a family to be the last to lose a loved one in Afghanistan?" Charney said. "The risk of escalation is too great. The cost is too high."
And he added that Congress and President Obama must weigh America's priorities in a time of deep recession and an unemployment rate of more than ten percent. "Investing in America's future means creating jobs, strengthening our safety net to address poverty, hunger and home foreclosure and paying for quality, affordable health care. We just cannot afford to expand the war in Afghanistan."
Matt Holland, director of USAction's online department, TrueMajority, said more than 30,000 USAction/TrueMajority members have signed a petition opposing the increase in fighting. "TrueMajority members were among the first to oppose the war in Iraq," he said. "We were among the first to oppose George W. Bush's escalation in December 2007. And we've been among the first to oppose this mistake in Afghanistan. Our members were right the first time and right the second time. Must there be a third time?"
USAction helped lead the Americans Against Escalation in Iraq coalition and many of its 28 state affiliates and partners organized on-the-ground events against the troop buildup. USAction and its online department TrueMajority also have been helping lead the effort to curtail funding for the F-22 fighter jet as well as other unnecessary and obsolete Pentagon programs.
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www.politicalpotluck.com
Political News You Can Use
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Georgia Workers and the State Slide Backwards
The annual State of Working Georgia examines the deteriorating status of working Georgians 20 months into the recession, outlining solutions that position Georgia to catch up. The recession pummeled Georgia and, as the 2009 edition points out, we have more catching up to do than most states.
§ Georgia lost 7.6 percent of jobs in this recession, the 5th highest of all states. Compared to other recent recessions, the current prolonged job loss is unparalleled. Georgia has less jobs today than in 2001.
§ The working age population of Georgia grew by 19 percent between January 2001 and September 2009, making Georgia a leader in population growth among states, yet with a startling job-population mismatch this decade.
§ Unemployment doubled since the beginning of the recession. Roughly 480,000 Georgia workers (10.1 percent) were unemployed. Additional workers have stopped looking for work or taken part-time jobs, making almost 1 in 6 workers underemployed.
"The task facing Georgia leaders today is to protect and preserve the quality of life of Georgians as they weather the economic downturn," said Sarah Beth Gehl, the report's author and the Institute's deputy director."
In addition to overall workforce trends, the analysis documents income, poverty, health insurance coverage, and disparities among demographics. For example:
§ African-American workers experienced 15.6 percent unemployment in the third quarter of this year, twice the level of unemployment among white workers (7.7 percent).
§ Low-income workers are much less likely to receive employer-sponsored health coverage than higher-wage workers: Twenty-seven percent of low-income, non-elderly adults had employer-sponsored coverage in 2007-2008 compared to 63 percent of all non-elderly adult Georgians.
§ In 2008, half of Hispanic part-time workers wanted full-time employment, but could only locate part-time work.
§ Education levels bookend the earnings spectrum.
"We recommend that Georgia policymakers invest more heavily in raising adult education levels and strengthening supports for low-wage workers," said Gehl, "rather than pushing tax cut legislation that further reduces Georgia's ability to meet people's needs today and make sure our economy is positioned for when prosperity returns."
There is a silver lining to the dismal workforce findings. Georgia can climb itself out of the mire: there are many public policies available to boost the situation of low-income workers and increase the education levels of Georgia workers hardest hit.
To review the analysis and solutions, read State of Working Georgia 2009.
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§ Georgia lost 7.6 percent of jobs in this recession, the 5th highest of all states. Compared to other recent recessions, the current prolonged job loss is unparalleled. Georgia has less jobs today than in 2001.
§ The working age population of Georgia grew by 19 percent between January 2001 and September 2009, making Georgia a leader in population growth among states, yet with a startling job-population mismatch this decade.
§ Unemployment doubled since the beginning of the recession. Roughly 480,000 Georgia workers (10.1 percent) were unemployed. Additional workers have stopped looking for work or taken part-time jobs, making almost 1 in 6 workers underemployed.
"The task facing Georgia leaders today is to protect and preserve the quality of life of Georgians as they weather the economic downturn," said Sarah Beth Gehl, the report's author and the Institute's deputy director."
In addition to overall workforce trends, the analysis documents income, poverty, health insurance coverage, and disparities among demographics. For example:
§ African-American workers experienced 15.6 percent unemployment in the third quarter of this year, twice the level of unemployment among white workers (7.7 percent).
§ Low-income workers are much less likely to receive employer-sponsored health coverage than higher-wage workers: Twenty-seven percent of low-income, non-elderly adults had employer-sponsored coverage in 2007-2008 compared to 63 percent of all non-elderly adult Georgians.
§ In 2008, half of Hispanic part-time workers wanted full-time employment, but could only locate part-time work.
§ Education levels bookend the earnings spectrum.
"We recommend that Georgia policymakers invest more heavily in raising adult education levels and strengthening supports for low-wage workers," said Gehl, "rather than pushing tax cut legislation that further reduces Georgia's ability to meet people's needs today and make sure our economy is positioned for when prosperity returns."
There is a silver lining to the dismal workforce findings. Georgia can climb itself out of the mire: there are many public policies available to boost the situation of low-income workers and increase the education levels of Georgia workers hardest hit.
To review the analysis and solutions, read State of Working Georgia 2009.
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www.politicalpotluck.com
Political News You Can Use
Friday, September 18, 2009
Massive Inflation Has Already Arrived in the U.S.
/PRNewswire/ -- The National Inflation Association today released the following statement to its http://inflation.us/ members:
"On March 5th with the U.S. Dollar Index at a multiyear high of 89, we wrote an article entitled, "The World is Awashed with Dollars" and said, "It's a real shame that those who lost most of their money in the stock market and Real Estate bubbles, and are now finally selling out after these markets have already collapsed, are positioning themselves to get wiped out all over again through massive inflation."
On March 26th we wrote another article entitled, "Don't Be Last Person Out of the Dollar" and said, "They (the politicians in Washington) will soon learn that you can't reinflate a bubble as Americans start to wake up and begin pouring their Dollars into real, hard assets like Gold and Silver."
Since then, the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen practically straight down to a new 52-week low of 76, while gold has risen to a new 18-month high of $1,025.80 per ounce and silver has risen to a new 13-month high of $17.63 per ounce. Meanwhile, several of our gold and silver stock suggestions have gained over 100%.
Ben Bernanke said this week that the recession is "very likely over." Yes, the recession may be over in nominal terms, but massive inflation has just begun and prices of stocks and real estate will continue to plummet when valued in real money, gold and silver. You can't just print your way out of a recession without increasing production. Sure, if you print enough money prices of stocks and real estate will rise when priced in dollars, but that won't mean a thing when it costs $10,000 to fill your refrigerator with food.
We are very happy that Peter Schiff announced on Thursday that he is officially a candidate for U.S. Senate in the State of Connecticut. We are big supporters of Peter Schiff with two of our co-founders each donating $2,400 to his Senate campaign. We are extremely pleased to be hearing from countless NIA members who have also contributed to the campaign. Unfortunately, even if Peter Schiff is elected and is able to help persuade Washington to reverse course immediately, it may still be too late to prevent hyperinflation. Every day that goes by with interest rates at 0%, tremendous damage is being done to our economy that we may never recover from.
China is now beginning to sell yuan-denominated bonds in Hong Kong while encouraging their citizens on state-run television to invest in silver. These moves are quietly positioning China to move away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency. When this day comes, all hell will break loose.
In the weeks ahead, we will be launching a new feature on our web site called NIAnswers. It will be a fully interactive section for you to submit to us your questions about the economy and inflation, and search through previous questions and answers that will be categorized in a database. We need to educate America as to how we will feel the pain of the government's trillions of dollars in wasteful spending so that at the next major tea party protest, we have hundreds of people holding inflation related signs. If Obama's supporters became aware of what happened in Zimbabwe when Robert Mugabe implemented the same policies that Obama and Bernanke are implementing here, they would see the light and jump to our side."
-----
www.politicalpotluck.com
Political News You Can Use
"On March 5th with the U.S. Dollar Index at a multiyear high of 89, we wrote an article entitled, "The World is Awashed with Dollars" and said, "It's a real shame that those who lost most of their money in the stock market and Real Estate bubbles, and are now finally selling out after these markets have already collapsed, are positioning themselves to get wiped out all over again through massive inflation."
On March 26th we wrote another article entitled, "Don't Be Last Person Out of the Dollar" and said, "They (the politicians in Washington) will soon learn that you can't reinflate a bubble as Americans start to wake up and begin pouring their Dollars into real, hard assets like Gold and Silver."
Since then, the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen practically straight down to a new 52-week low of 76, while gold has risen to a new 18-month high of $1,025.80 per ounce and silver has risen to a new 13-month high of $17.63 per ounce. Meanwhile, several of our gold and silver stock suggestions have gained over 100%.
Ben Bernanke said this week that the recession is "very likely over." Yes, the recession may be over in nominal terms, but massive inflation has just begun and prices of stocks and real estate will continue to plummet when valued in real money, gold and silver. You can't just print your way out of a recession without increasing production. Sure, if you print enough money prices of stocks and real estate will rise when priced in dollars, but that won't mean a thing when it costs $10,000 to fill your refrigerator with food.
We are very happy that Peter Schiff announced on Thursday that he is officially a candidate for U.S. Senate in the State of Connecticut. We are big supporters of Peter Schiff with two of our co-founders each donating $2,400 to his Senate campaign. We are extremely pleased to be hearing from countless NIA members who have also contributed to the campaign. Unfortunately, even if Peter Schiff is elected and is able to help persuade Washington to reverse course immediately, it may still be too late to prevent hyperinflation. Every day that goes by with interest rates at 0%, tremendous damage is being done to our economy that we may never recover from.
China is now beginning to sell yuan-denominated bonds in Hong Kong while encouraging their citizens on state-run television to invest in silver. These moves are quietly positioning China to move away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency. When this day comes, all hell will break loose.
In the weeks ahead, we will be launching a new feature on our web site called NIAnswers. It will be a fully interactive section for you to submit to us your questions about the economy and inflation, and search through previous questions and answers that will be categorized in a database. We need to educate America as to how we will feel the pain of the government's trillions of dollars in wasteful spending so that at the next major tea party protest, we have hundreds of people holding inflation related signs. If Obama's supporters became aware of what happened in Zimbabwe when Robert Mugabe implemented the same policies that Obama and Bernanke are implementing here, they would see the light and jump to our side."
-----
www.politicalpotluck.com
Political News You Can Use
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